By Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge): 17 August, 2016
Two months ago, the bond manager of what was once the world’s biggest bond fund had a dire prediction about how “all of this” will end (spoiler: not well).
Now, it is the turn of another financial icon, if from a vastly different legacy – and pedigree – that of Rothschild Investment Trust Chairman himself, Lord Jacob Rothschild, who appears to be the latest entrant to the bearish billionaire club.
We were surprised to find his summary of recent events downright gloomy, and certainly non-conforming with a stock “market”, manipulated by central banks as it may be, trading at all time highs. Here are the key excerpts:
“The six months under review have seen central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30% of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale.
To date, at least in stock market terms, the policy has been successful with markets near their highs, while volatility on the whole has remained low. Nearly all classes of investment have been boosted by the rising monetary tide. Meanwhile, growth remains anaemic, with weak demand and deflation in many parts of the developed world.
Many of the risks which I underlined in my 2015 statement remain; indeed the geo-political situation has deteriorated with the UK having voted to leave the European Union, the presidential election in the US in November is likely to be unusually fraught, while the situation in China remains opaque and the slowing down of economic growth will surely lead to problems. Conflict in the Middle East continues and is unlikely to be resolved for many years. We have already felt the consequences of this in France, Germany and the USA in terrorist attacks.”
As a result, Rothschild has put his money where his mouth is: “we have reduced our exposure from 55% to 44%. Our Sterling exposure was significantly reduced over the period to 34%, and currently stands at approximately 25%. We increased gold and precious metals to 8% by the end of June.“
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